Macro economy and capital market strategy.
Are the currently strong rises in the overall price levels really just transitory, or are they here for the long-run? There is a lot of debate going on about this current run of inflation. Is the only possible conclusion: Inflation – Stagnation – Confusion?
The second half of 2021 could see a sharp rise in inflation. This is shown by data from global purchasing managers’ indices. While the situation currently appears to be giving no cause for concern for central banks, prices in supply chains are already running high.
As a risk manager, one of the most important tasks is to recognize the danger in good times and to soberly analyze the future in bad. Times are currently bad – but from a purely analytical perspective, the outlook is changing. It’s time for some optimism.
Ever since the financial crisis the “Japanese disease” has been on the minds of financial professionals. Japan has been living with rampant government debt combined with sustained low interest rates for more than a decade now. And we in Europe must now adapt to this regime as well.